SAMPLE SIZE - Exit Poll – Phases I, II, III & IV on May 10

The national projection in this article is based on a four-phase aggregation of the exit poll results. 

But some words of caution. All polls – opinion and exit – are subject to margins of error. The sampling error in this poll differs across the different states, with the highest range of error not exceeding ±3%. 

NDA: FALLS SHORT OF A MAJORITY 

After almost eight weeks of non-stop electioneering, all political parties are waiting for the declaration of the final results. When the BJP won the elections to three state assemblies in December, 2003, the widely held perception was that the NDA was unstoppable. 

The economy was doing well, the stock market was booming, the monsoons had been good and the BJP was smiling. There was enormous pressure on Mr. Vajpayee to call the elections rather than risk a bad monsoon or some other imponderables that might slow down the economy. 

So, the Prime Minster went ahead and asked that the Lok Sabha be dissolved. And in the first few heady weeks after the elections were announced, the opinion polls suggested a near walkover for the NDA. However, as days went past and the opposition parties got their acts together, it was apparent that the fight would be closer than first thought. 

Now that the fight has come to an end and it is all over bar the counting, questions will be asked about the wisdom of going to the polls months before the end of term of the Lok Sabha. 

The NDA’s biggest hit will be in Tamil Nadu where the AIADMK-BJP combine is expected to be wiped out. The alliance was going against the arithmetic of the opposing alliance and it has been unable to make up the enormous disadvantage from which it began. 

Its main success in this phase is from Madhya Pradesh and the smaller gains come from Punjab. But there are small losses in several other states, such as Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal that are expected to offset these gains. Even in its bastion of Delhi, the BJP is likely to be reduced to a minority. 

With 230-250 seats, all options are open and the next few weeks will see a great deal of moving and shaking. And if the projected figures come to pass, the present election will be reduced to a semi-final, with a final in about a year’s time.

NDTV-Indian Express Opinion Poll (Fieldwork by AC Nielsen) 

Source: NDTV