NDTV - INDIAN EXPRESS - NIELSEN OPINION POLL

The elections to the 14th Lok Sabha are less than a month away and the nominations for the states going to the polls in the first phase (on April 20) have just opened. 

Over 600 million Indians are eligible to vote in these elections – the first ones where ballot papers are a thing of the past; all the voters will use electronic voting machines to record their choices. 

The Indian Express and New Delhi Television (NDTV) jointly commissioned A C Nielsen, a leading market research agency, to conduct an opinion poll to gauge the voting intentions of the electorate as well as to seek their views on a range of subjects and personalities. 

The fieldwork for the poll was conducted between March 5 and March 18. The sample size of 45,478, spread over 207 of the 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, is probably the largest ever sample for a published poll. 

But a word of caution. Opinion polls measure voter preferences at the time when the poll is conducted. When this poll was carried out, the alliances had not been firmed up, names of candidates not announced, party manifestos not published. And more than that, the One Day series against Pakistan was not won. 

In this information age, where contests have become increasingly presidential even in parliamentary democracies, single events can have serious impact on the polls – witness the recent elections in Spain where a likely winner lost decisively due to the blasts that occurred in Madrid on the eve of the polls. 

Therefore, this is not the only poll that Indian Express-NDTV combine has commissioned but only the first in a series of two opinion polls and an exit poll that will be conducted by A C Nielsen. 

Methodology

The poll was carried out in 207 constituencies spread over 18 states that account for over 90% of the 543 Lok Sabha seats. 

In each constituency, three assembly segments were selected at random. 

Within each assembly segment, four polling booths were selected at random. In each polling booth area, 18-20 interviews were conducted in homes. 

For the voting intention question, the respondents were given a mock ballot paper on which the symbols of the parties were set out. 

They were asked to mark their preference on the ballot paper and then place the ballot paper in a mock ballot box. 

In the three states where assembly elections were also conducted, the respondents were also asked to indicate their voting preference for the Vidhan Sabha polls. 

Based on the findings of the opinion poll, this article has been prepared by Dr. Prannoy Roy, Yogendra Yadav, I P Bajpai, Namrata Gupta, Saba Siddiqui and Dorab R. Sopariwala 

BJP MOMENTUM

This mid-March opinion poll suggests that the NDA will be back in the saddle once the heat and dust of the elections is over. 

The states where it is expected to perform particularly well are Rajasthan, MP and Chhattisgarh, states where it performed very well in the recent Assembly elections. 

Karnataka is another state that may yield good dividends for the BJP. Thus, the BJP is expected to increase its tally and its share of the NDA seats – but will be far away from the 300 mark. 

While most of the BJP’s allies are likely to hold their positions, the biggest setback to the alliance is likely to come from Tamil Nadu. Jayalalithaa, the leader of the alliance, is unpopular in Tamil Nadu. 

Moreover, the DMK-led alliance has the caste combinations on its side and is expected to sweep the state. In fact, had the BJP held on to its earlier allies, the result in Tamil Nadu may have been quite different. 

The Congress alliance, not anywhere as well cobbled together as the NDA, is also likely to hold on to its share. But, unlike the BJP, the Congress is unlikely to do as well as last time and there is the distinct possibility that its number of seats may slump below the 100 mark. 

Its allies, such as the DMK, are once again expected to do well. 

Is the Vikas Purush the “Best PM”?

India has had several Prime Ministers whose acolytes claim that they were the “greatest”. Well, here is the chance of find out how four Congress Prime Ministers fare against Atalji. 

India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, died before almost half the present electorate was born but his memory certainly seems to have lived on. It was he who saw the young Vajpayee as future PM material but the chela is no match for the guru forty years on. 

And Vajpayee does no better against Nehru’s daughter who, during the Emergency imprisoned him. In the case of Nehru and Indira, even BJP supporters rate the Congress PMs higher then Vajpayee. 

Rajiv Gandhi, whose memory is more recent, also leads Vajpayee in the “Better PM” stakes. The lead, however, is much narrower than that enjoyed by his mother and his grandfather and, in Rajiv’s case, BJP supporters have rallied to the side of Vajpayee. 

The most recent Congress PM, P V Narasimha Rao, fares miserably against Vajpayee. Many persons credit Rao with opening up the Indian economy but it is today’s Vikas Purush who is seen as far the better PM – a view endorsed even by Congress voters. 

The moral of the story probably is that when one is PM, it is charisma that counts – loha and vikas can burnish the image but charisma is what brings in the votes. 

WHO IS BETTER?

“The Feel Good” Factor

The government has been running a series of advertisements over the past few months publicising its achievements 

The opposition has, on the other hand, been critical of this waste of public money at a time when parts of the country are suffering a drought and when unemployment is at a peak. 

IF NOT VAJPAYEE, WHO?

Ever since Vajpayee assumed office, many people have wondered about his second line 

Well – the voters are clear. Advani is the clear second line. But Advani has himself remarked that he belongs to the same generation as Vajpayee and that Vajpayee’s successor would come from the next line of leaders. 

Incidentally, for various reasons, none of these third line politicians are standing for the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections. 


IF NOT SONIA, WHO?

And if Sonia Gandhi took political sanyas, who would be the best person to lead the Congress? The Congress has been led by a member of the Nehru-Gandhi family for all except about ten years since Independence. 

So, it is not surprising that the choice of the voters again veers to the younger generation of the Gandhis 

Leading the chase is Priyanka Gandhi who, for many years, has kept the country guessing about her political intentions. 

Thus, around a quarter of the voters do not wish to extend their search beyond the Gandhis. Incidentally, most of the fieldwork for this poll was conducted before Rahul Gandhi announced his intention to stand for the Lok Sabha from Amethi. 

The second opinion poll may provide a different indication of his acceptability as a successor to his mother. 

Narasimha Rao, the only Congress Prime Minister still alive, was fourth behind Rahul Gandhi 

ISSUES THAT AFFECT VOTERS

While a majority of voters think that India is shining, there are a number of problems that still ail the country. However, it is the hardly perennials that the voter sees as the main issues 

On the other hand, divisive issues such as reducing Hindu-Muslim tension, the building of a Ram Temple in Ayodhya and better Indo-Pakistan relations appear at the bottom of the list. 

OUR DEDICATED MPs

Voters have often complained that their MPs disappear after the elections and are next seen only when they come to ask for votes in the following elections 

Another 36% are grateful that they that they have been able to see him once a year during his five year term. 

CENTRAL GOVERNMENT vs. STATE GOVERNMENT

In a federal country like India, it is a moot point whether the performance of the (physically nearby) state government has am impact on the way in which voters cast their ballot. 

This question has probably assumed greater importance in a coalition era where the performance of one party could affect the fate of other parties in other states who are members of the coalition.

Over 40% of the respondents maintained that it was the state government’s performance that had a greater influence on way they voted in the Lok Sabha elections. 

Thus, the senior partner in the coalition now not only has to worry about his own party but also the performance of its electoral allies in the various states. 

HOW IMPORTANT IS CASTE?

Political commentators have for years spoken about the increasing influence of caste on the Indian political scene 

In a surprising turn for the books, the Indian voter disclaims any such influence. 

Just over three quarters of the respondents claimed that their vote would not be swayed by caste. 

Source: NDTV.com