Now is the time of year when pundits and prognosticators start
making their predictions for the next 365 (actually 366) days.

There is no reason for me not to do the same.

After a three-year bear market, shareholders enjoyed a banner
year in 2003.  This will continue in the next 12 months as the
economy continues to gain momentum.  Unemployment will
continue to fall and while currently low interest rates increase
slightly, they will remain at historically low levels.

The difficulty in Iraq will continue as that nation struggles with a
transition to democracy.  The opposition to the war in the United States will continue to be vocal and the opposition in Iraq will continue to be violent.  The situation for the US in Iraq will remain "messy" and will be the number one issue in the
Presidential campaign.

The transition of sovereignty in Iraq, currently scheduled for
June, will not occur as planned or hoped by the administration. 
There will be much infighting with regard to the drafting of a
constitution and it seems unlikely that six months will be enough
time for a transition to occur.

Osama bin Laden will remain at large as 2004 comes to a close.

In the world of entertainment, Hollywood will put out some more disappointing blockbusters and television will degenerate even further with more inane reality shows and titillating sitcoms.  None of which I will watch.

Scott Peterson will walk.  Kobe Bryant will walk.  Michael Jackson will (moon) walk.  Martha Stewart goes to the big
house.

The NFL will crown a new champion and as is pretty much the
case now, virtually every game will be a toss up.  The Los
Angeles, favored to win the NBA championship, will not. 
Instead the Sacramento Kings will reign.  The New York
Yankees will, once again, be in the major league playoffs, but
will not win the World Series.  Neither the Boston Red Sox
(1918) nor the Chicago Cubs (1908) will break their long World
Series droughts in 2004.

The weather will be bad in some places and good in others, but
we will only hear about the bad weather.

Obesity will continue to be a topic of conversation around the
nation's dinner tables.

Young people will continue to dress strangely and adorn their
faces and bodies in bizarre fashion, horrifying their parents, but
providing a small modicum of amusement for the rest of us.

Boorish and inconsiderate people will continue to drive
erratically while carrying on meaningless cell phone conversations thereby endangering themselves, their passengers and drivers around them.

Current Democrat front runner Howard Dean will not maintain
his early momentum, especially after his act wears thin with
mainstream Democrats in some of the later primaries.  Gen.
Wesley Clark will win the Democratic Presidential nomination
and will oppose President Bush in November.

Hanging chads and butterfly ballots will be a thing of the past
and George W. Bush will have no need to turn off the electricity
or water in the White House until January 20, 2009 as he wins
reelection by a substantial margin.

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Jan A. Larson publishes a weekly commentary, "What is the
Deal?" at the Pie of Knowledge (http://www.pieofknowledge.com).  His work also appears from
time to time on OpinionEditorials (http://www.opinioneditorials.com) and The Washington
Dispatch (http://www.washingtondispatch.com).